Wind Forecast at Medium Voltage Distribution Networks
نویسندگان
چکیده
Due to the intermittent and variable nature of wind, Wind Power Generation Forecast (WPGF) has become an essential task for power system operators who are looking reliable wind penetration into electric grid. Since there is a need forecast generation accurately, main contribution this paper development, implementation, comparison WPGF methods in framework be used by distribution (DSOs). The methodology applied comprised five stages: pre-processing, feature selection, forecasting models, post-processing, validation, using historical data (measured at secondary substations) 20 farms connected medium voltage (MV) network Portugal. After comparing accuracy eight different models terms their relative root mean square error (RRMSE), extreme gradient boosting (XGBOOST) appeared as best-suited method generation. best average RRMSE achieved proposed XGBOOST model 1-year training (January–December 2020) 6 months (January–June 2021) corresponds 13.48%, outperforming predictions Portuguese DSO 20%.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Energies
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['1996-1073']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en16062887